BEST ANALYZE THE ECONOMIC MARKET

Gold as an investment
Of all the precious metals, gold is the most popular as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a hedge or safe haven against any economic, political, social, or fiat currency crises (including investment market declines, burgeoning national debt, currency failure, inflation, war and social unrest). The gold market is also subject to speculation as other commodities are, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives.

Gold has been used throughout history as money and has been a relative standard for currency equivalents specific to economic regions or countries. Many European countries implemented gold standards in the later part of the 19th century until these were dismantled in the financial crises involving World War I. After World War II, the Bretton Woods system pegged the United States dollar to gold at a rate of US$35 per troy ounce. The system existed until the 1971 Nixon Shock, when the US unilaterally suspended the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold and made the transition to a fiat currency system. The last currency to be divorced from gold was the Swiss Franc in 2000.

Since 1919 the most common benchmark for the price of gold has been the London gold fixing, a twice-daily telephone meeting of representatives from five bullion-trading firms of the London bullion market. Furthermore, gold is traded continuously throughout the world based on the intra-day spot price, derived from over-the-counter gold-trading markets around the world. The following table sets forth the gold price versus various assets and key statistics.

In March 2008, the gold price exceeded US$1,000, achieving a nominal high of US$1,004.38. In real terms, actual value was still well below the US$599 peak in 1981 (equivalent to $1417 in U.S. 2008 dollar value). After the March 2008 spike, gold prices declined to a low of US$712.30 per ounce in November. Pricing soon resumed on upward momentum by temporarily breaking the US$1000 barrier again in late February 2009 but regressed moderately later in the quarter.
After fluctuation returned near the US$1,000.00 mark in mid-September 2009, international gold markets peaked at US$1,023.30. Pricing later declined moderately again in late September 2009, falling back to US$991.70 for the week ending on September 25, 2009.

Later in 2009, the March 2008 intra-day spot price record of US$1,033.90 was broken several times in October, as the price of gold entered parabolic stages of successively new highs when a spike reversal to $1226 initiated a retrace of the price to the mid-October levels.
On June 17, 2010, Gold closed at a new nominal high of $1,248.

Factors influencing the gold price
Today, like most commodities, the price of gold is driven by supply and demand as well as speculation. However unlike most other commodities, hoarding (saving) and disposal plays a larger role in affecting its price than its consumption. Most of the gold ever mined still exists in accessible form, such as bullion and mass-produced jewelry, with little value over its fine weight and is thus potentially able to come back onto the gold market for the right price. At the end of 2006, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 158,000 tonnes (156,000 LT; 174,000 ST). This can be represented by a cube with an edge length of 20.2 metres (66 ft). At the end of 2004 central banks and official organizations held 19 percent of all above-ground gold as official gold reserves. Given the huge quantity of gold stored above-ground compared to the annual production, the price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than changes in annual production. According to the World Gold Council, annual mine production of gold over the last few years has been close to 2,500 tonnes. About 2,000 tonnes goes into jewellery or industrial/dental production, and around 500 tonnes goes to retail investors and exchange traded gold funds. This translates to an annual demand for gold to be 1,000 tonnes in excess over mine production which has come from central bank sales and other disposal.
Central banks and the International Monetary Fund play an important role in the gold price. The ten year Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG), which dates from September 1999, limited gold sales by its members (Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) to less than 500 tonnes a year. European central banks, such as the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank, were key sellers of gold over this period. In 2009, this agreement was extended for a further five years, but with a smaller annual sales limit of 400 tonnes.

Although central banks do not generally announce gold purchases in advance, some, such as Russia, have expressed interest in growing their gold reserves again as of late 2005. In early 2006, China, which only holds 1.3% of its reserves in gold, announced that it was looking for ways to improve the returns on its official reserves. Some bulls hope that this signals that China might reposition more of its holdings into gold in line with other Central Banks. India has recently purchased over 200 tons of gold which has led to a surge in prices.
The price of gold is also affected by various well-documented mechanisms of artificial price suppression, arising from fractional-reserve banking and naked short selling in gold, and particularly involving the London Bullion Market Association, the United States Federal Reserve System, and the banks HSBC and JPMorgan Chase. Gold market observers have noted for many years that the price of gold tends to fall artificially at the start of New York trading.

Bank failures
When dollars were fully convertible into gold, both were regarded as money. However, most people preferred to carry around paper banknotes rather than the somewhat heavier and less divisible gold coins. If people feared their bank would fail, a bank run might have been the result. This is what happened in the USA during the Great Depression of the 1930s, leading President Roosevelt to impose a national emergency and to outlaw the ownership of gold by US citizens.

Low or negative real interest rates
If the return on bonds, equities and real estate is not adequately compensating for risk and inflation then the demand for gold and other alternative investments such as commodities increases. An example of this is the period of Stagflation that occurred during the 1970s and which led to an economic bubble forming in precious metals.

War, invasion, looting, crisis
In times of national crisis, people fear that their assets may be seized and that the currency may become worthless. They see gold as a solid asset which will always buy food or transportation. Thus in times of great uncertainty, particularly when war is feared, the demand for gold rises.

The most traditional way of investing in gold is by buying bullion gold bars. In some countries, like Argentina, Austria, Liechtenstein and Switzerland, these can easily be bought or sold "over the counter" of the major banks. Alternatively, there are bullion dealers that provide the same service. Bars are available in various sizes. For example in Europe, London Good Delivery bars are approximately 400 troy ounces (12 kg). 1 kilogram (32 ozt) are also popular, although many other weights exist, such as the Tael, 10oz, 1oz bar, 10 g, or 1 Tola.
Gold bars can be held either directly (i.e. held directly by you or in your own safe) or indirectly (held in a safe deposit box or bank vault on your behalf). Because of the many difficulties of transporting, storing and verifying pure gold bars, a popular method of investing in gold bars for the small investor is via allocated holdings using a gold account — see Accounts below.
Bars are increasing in popularity as investment vehicles, as they carry lower premiums than gold bullion coins. It is estimated that the premiums on kilo gold bars can be at least $50 per ounce less than the premiums on coins such as the American Gold Eagles. However larger bars carry an increased risk of fakery, due to their less stringent parameters for appearance and greater volume in which to create a tungsten-filled cavity.
Gold bars are sold in weights of 1 ozt (31 g), 10 ozt (310 g), 100 g, and 1 kg. All these gold bars are .9999 fine (99.99% pure). It seems that the gold bars are primarily sold as 1 kg bars rather than 1 oz gold bars, due to the fact that they are much easier to store.
Kilo gold bars are .9999 fine (99.99% pure) and contain 32.15 troy ounces (1.000 kg) each. The most commonly available kilo gold bars are the PAMP and the Royal Canadian Mint (RCM) gold bars. PAMP kilo gold bars usually come with certificates. RCM bars do not come with either protective cases or certificates. The PAMP certificate actually consists of the PAMP hallmark on the gold bars.

Gold coins are a common way of owning gold. Bullion coins are priced according to their fine weight, plus a small premium based on supply and demand (as opposed to numismatic gold coins which are priced mainly by supply and demand).
The Krugerrand is the most widely-held gold bullion coin, with 46,000,000 troy ounces (1,400,000 kg) in circulation. Other common gold bullion coins include the Australian Gold Nugget (Kangaroo), Austrian Philharmoniker (Philharmonic), Austrian 100 Corona, Canadian Gold Maple Leaf, Chinese Gold Panda, French Coq d’Or (Golden Rooster), Mexican Gold 50 Peso, British Sovereign, and American Gold Eagle.
Coins may be purchased from a variety of dealers both large and small. Fake gold coins are not uncommon, and are usually made of gold-plated lead. Like gold bars, large Swiss and Liechtenstein banks buy and sell bullion coins over the counter.

Stock valuation
In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued (with respect to their theoretical value) are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will, on the whole, rise in value, while overvalued stocks will, on the whole, fall.
In the view of fundamental analysis, stock valuation based on fundamentals aims to give an estimate of their intrinsic value of the stock, based on predictions of the future cash flows and profitability of the business. Fundamental analysis may be replaced or augmented by market criteria – what the market will pay for the stock, without any necessary notion of intrinsic value. These can be combined as "predictions of future cash flows/profits (fundamental)", together with "what will the market pay for these profits?". These can be seen as "supply and demand" sides – what underlies the supply (of stock), and what drives the (market) demand for stock?
In the view of others, such as John Maynard Keynes, stock valuation is not a prediction but a convention, which serves to facilitate investment and ensure that stocks are liquid, despite being underpinned by an illiquid business and its illiquid investments, such as factories.
The most theoretically sound stock valuation method, called income valuation or the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, involves discounting of the profits (dividends, earnings, or cash flows) the stock will bring to the stockholder in the foreseeable future, and a final value on disposal. The discounted rate normally includes a risk premium which is commonly based on the capital asset pricing model.

Stock Valuation Methods
Stocks have two types of valuations. One is a value created using some type of cash flow, sales or fundamental earnings analysis. The other value is dictated by how much an investor is willing to pay for a particular share of stock and by how much other investors are willing to sell a stock for (in other words, by supply and demand). Both of these values change over time as investors change the way they analyze stocks and as they become more or less confident in the future of stocks. Let me discuss both types of valuations.
First, the fundamental valuation. This is the valuation that people use to justify stock prices. The most common example of this type of valuation methodology is P/E ratio, which stands for Price to Earnings Ratio. This form of valuation is based on historic ratios and statistics and aims to assign value to a stock based on measurable attributes. This form of valuation is typically what drives long-term stock prices.
The other way stocks are valued is based on supply and demand. The more people that want to buy the stock, the higher its price will be. And conversely, the more people that want to sell the stock, the lower the price will be. This form of valuation is very hard to understand or predict, and is often drives the short-term stock market trends.
In short, there are many different ways to value stocks. I will list several of them here. The key is to take each approach into account while formulating an overall opinion of the stock. Look at each valuation technique and ask yourself why the stock is valued this way. If it is lower or higher than other similar stocks, then try to determine why. And remember, a great company is not always a great investment. Here are the basic valuation techniques:
Earnings Per Share (EPS). You've heard the term many times, but do you really know what it means. EPS is the total net income of the company divided by the number of shares outstanding. It sounds simple but unfortunately it gets quite a bit more complicated. Companies usually report many EPS numbers. They usually have a GAAP EPS number (which means that it is computed using all of mutually agreed upon accounting rules) and a Pro Forma EPS figure (which means that they have adjusted the income to exclude any one time items as well as some non-cash items like amortization of goodwill or stock option expenses). The most important thing to look for in the EPS figure is the overall quality of earnings. Make sure the company is not trying to manipulate their EPS numbers to make it look like they are more profitable. Also, look at the growth in EPS over the past several quarters / years to understand how volatile their EPS is, and to see if they are an underachiever or an overachiever. In other words, have they consistently beaten expectations or are they constantly restating and lowering their forecasts?
The EPS number that most analysts use is the pro forma EPS. To compute this number, use the net income that excludes any one-time gains or losses and excludes any non-cash expenses like stock options or amortization of goodwill. Then divide this number by the number of fully diluted shares outstanding. You can easily find historical EPS figures and to see forecasts for the next 1-2 years by visiting free financial sites such as Yahoo Finance (enter the ticker and then click on "estimates").
By doing your fundamental investment research you'll be able to arrive at your own EPS forecasts, which you can then apply to the other valuation techniques below. Price to Earnings (P/E). Now that you have several EPS figures (historical and forecasts), you'll be able to look at the most common valuation technique used by analysts, the price to earnings ratio, or P/E. To compute this figure, take the stock price and divide it by the annual EPS figure. For example, if the stock is trading at $10 and the EPS is $0.50, the P/E is 20 times. To get a good feeling of what P/E multiple a stock trades at, be sure to look at the historical and forward ratios.
Historical P/Es are computed by taking the current price divided by the sum of the EPS for the last four quarters, or for the previous year. You should also look at the historical trends of the P/E by viewing a chart of its historical P/E over the last several years (you can find on most finance sites like Yahoo Finance). Specifically you want to find out what range the P/E has traded in so that you can determine if the current P/E is high or low versus its historical average.
Forward P/Es are probably the single most important valuation method because they reflect the future growth of the company into the figure. And remember, all stocks are priced based on their future earnings, not on their past earnings. However, past earnings are sometimes a good indicator for future earnings. Forward P/Es are computed by taking the current stock price divided by the sum of the EPS estimates for the next four quarters, or for the EPS estimate for next calendar of fiscal year or two. I always use the Forward P/E for the next two calendar years to compute my forward P/Es. That way I can easily compare the P/E of one company to that of it's competitors and to that of the market. For example, Cisco's fiscal year ends in July, so to compute the P/E for that calendar year, I would add together the quarterly EPS estimates (or actuals in some cases) for its quarters ended April, July, October and the next January. Use the current price divided by this number to arrive at the P/E.
Also, it is important to remember that P/Es change constantly. If there is a large price change in a stock you are watching, or if the earnings (EPS) estimates change, be sure to recompute the ratio.
Growth Rate. Valuations rely very heavily on the expected growth rate of a company. For starters, you can look at the historical growth rate of both sales and income to get a feeling for what type of future growth that you can expect. However, companies are constantly changing, as well as the economy, so don't rely on historical growth rates to predict the future, but instead use them as a guideline for what future growth could look like if similar circumstances are encountered by the company. To calculate your future growth rate, you'll need to do your own investment research. The easiest way to arrive at this forecast is to listen to the company's quarterly conference call, or if it has already happened, then read a press release or other company article that discusses the company's growth guidance. However, remember that although company's are in the best position to forecast their own growth, they are not very accurate, and things change rapidly in the economy and in their industry. So before you forecast a growth rate, try to take all of these factors into account.
And for any valuation technique, you really want to look at a range of forecast values. For example, if the company you are valuing has been growing earnings between 5 and 10% each year for the last 5 years but suddenly thinks it will grow 15 - 20% this year, you may want to be a little more conservative than the company and use a growth rate of 10 - 15%. Another example would be for a company that has been going through restructuring. They may have been growing earnings at 10 - 15% over the past several quarters / years because of cost cutting, but their sales growth could be only 0 - 5%. This would signal that their earnings growth will probably slow when the cost cutting has fully taken effect. Therefore you would want to forecast earnings growth closer to the 0 - 5% rate than the 15 - 20%. The point I'm trying to make is that you really need to use a lot of gut feel to make a forecast. That is why the analysts are often inaccurate and that is why you should get as familiar with the company as you can before making these forecasts.
PEG Ratio. This valuation technique has really become popular over the past decade or so. It is better than just looking at a P/E because it takes three factors into account; the price, earnings, and earnings growth rates. To compute the PEG ratio (a.k.a. Price Earnings to Growth ratio) divide the Forward P/E by the expected earnings growth rate (you can also use historical P/E and historical growth rate to see where it's traded in the past). This will yield a ratio that is usually expressed as a percentage. The theory goes that as the percentage rises over 100% the stock becomes more and more overvalued, and as the PEG ratio falls below 100% the stock becomes more and more undervalued. The theory is based on a belief that P/E ratios should approximate the long-term growth rate of a company's earnings. Whether or not this is true will never be proven and the theory is therefore just a rule of thumb to use in the overall valuation process.
Here's an example of how to use the PEG ratio. Say you are comparing two stocks that you are thinking about buying. Stock A is trading at a forward P/E of 15 and expected to grow at 20%. Stock B is trading at a forward P/E of 30 and expected to grow at 25%. The PEG ratio for Stock A is 75% (15/20) and for Stock B is 120% (30/25). According to the PEG ratio, Stock A is a better purchase because it has a lower PEG ratio, or in other words, you can purchase it's future earnings growth for a lower relative price than that of Stock B.
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). This valuation technique measures how much money the company makes each year per dollar of invested capital. Invested Capital is the amount of money invested in the company by both stockholders and debtors. The ratio is expressed as a percent and you should look for a percent that approximates the level of growth that you expect. In it's simplest definition, this ratio measures the investment return that management is able to get for its capital. The higher the number, the better the return.
To compute the ratio, take the pro forma net income (same one used in the EPS figure mentioned above) and divide it by the invested capital. Invested capital can be estimated by adding together the stockholders equity, the total long and short term debt and accounts payable, and then subtracting accounts receivable and cash (all of these numbers can be found on the company's latest quarterly balance sheet). This ratio is much more useful when you compare it to other companies that you are valuing.
Return on Assets (ROA). Similar to ROIC, ROA, expressed as a percent, measures the company's ability to make money from its assets. To measure the ROA, take the pro forma net income divided by the total assets. However, because of very common irregularities in balance sheets (due to things like Goodwill, write-offs, discontinuations, etc.) this ratio is not always a good indicator of the company's potential. If the ratio is higher or lower than you expected, be sure to look closely at the assets to see what could be over or understating the figure.
Price to Sales (P/S). This figure is useful because it compares the current stock price to the annual sales. In other words, it tells you how much the stock costs per dollar of sales earned. To compute it, take the current stock price divided by the annual sales per share. The annual sales per share should be calculated by taking the net sales for the last four quarters divided by the fully diluted shares outstanding (both of these figures can be found by looking at the press releases or quarterly reports). The price to sales ratio is useful, but it does not take into account any debt the company has. For example, if a company is heavily financed by debt instead of equity, then the sales per share will seem high (the P/S will be lower). All things equal, a lower P/S ratio is better. However, this ratio is best looked at when comparing more than one company.
Market Cap. Market Cap, which is short for Market Capitalization, is the value of all of the company's stock. To measure it, multiply the current stock price by the fully diluted shares outstanding. Remember, the market cap is only the value of the stock. To get a more complete picture, you'll want to look at the Enterprise Value.
Enterprise Value (EV). Enterprise Value is equal to the total value of the company, as it is trading for on the stock market. To compute it, add the market cap (see above) and the total net debt of the company. The total net debt is equal to total long and short term debt plus accounts payable, minus accounts receivable, minus cash. The Enterprise Value is the best approximation of what a company is worth at any point in time because it takes into account the actual stock price instead of balance sheet prices. When analysts say that a company is a "billion dollar" company, they are often referring to it's total enterprise value. Enterprise Value fluctuates rapidly based on stock price changes.
EV to Sales. This ratio measures the total company value as compared to its annual sales. A high ratio means that the company's value is much more than its sales. To compute it, divide the EV by the net sales for the last four quarters. This ratio is especially useful when valuing companies that do not have earnings, or that are going through unusually rough times. For example, if a company is facing restructuring and it is currently losing money, then the P/E ratio would be irrelevant. However, by applying a EV to Sales ratio, you could compute what that company could trade for when it's restructuring is over and its earnings are back to normal.
EBITDA. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It is one of the best measures of a company's cash flow and is used for valuing both public and private companies. To compute EBITDA, use a companies income statement, take the net income and then add back interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and any other non-cash or one-time charges. This leaves you with a number that approximates how much cash the company is producing. EBITDA is a very popular figure because it can easily be compared across companies, even if all of the companies are not profitable.
EV to EBITDA. This is perhaps one of the best measurements of whether or not a company is cheap or expensive. To compute, divide the EV by EBITDA (see above for calculations). The higher the number, the more expensive the company is. However, remember that more expensive companies are often valued higher because they are growing faster or because they are a higher quality company. With that said, the best way to use EV/EBITDA is to compare it to that of other similar companies.

Bond valuation
Bond valuation is the act of determining the fair price of a bond. As with any security or capital investment, the theoretical fair value of a bond is the present value of the stream of cash flows it is expected to generate. Hence, the value of a bond is obtained by discounting the bond's expected cash flows to the present using the appropriate discount rate. Determining this rate in practice - i.e. "pricing" the bond - is done with reference to other instruments. Once the price or value has been calculated, the sensitivity of the price can then be estimated; the various yields, which relate the price of the bond to its coupons, can also be determined.
When the bond includes embedded options, the valuation is more specialized and combines option pricing with the cash flow based approach. Depending on the option as embedded, the option price as calculated is either added to or subtracted from the price of the "straight" portion. This total is then the value of the bond; the various yields can then be calculated for the total price. See further under Bond option.
As above, the fair price of a straight bond (a bond with no embedded option; see Embedded Option) is determined by discounting its expected cash flows at the appropriate discount rate. The formula applied is as follows

Cash flows
the periodic coupon payments C, each of which is made n times (n is usually 2) every year
the par or face value F, which is payable at maturity of the bond after T years. (note: final year payments will include the par value plus the coupon payments for the year). In some of the bonds, their Maturity Redemption Price might be more than par value, in this case the F is actually the Redemption Price.
Discount rate: the required (annualised) yield or rate of return r
r is the market interest rate for bonds with similar terms and risk ratings
m is the number of coupons to be paid over the remaining lifetime of the bond, i.e. n times T. (It is assumed that the previous coupon has just been paid.)
u is (1 + r) i.e. an interest accumulation factor over one coupon period
When the bond is not valued precisely on a coupon date, the present value relationship as above, will incorporate accrued interest: i.e. any interest due to the owner of the bond since the previous coupon date; see day count convention. The price of a bond which includes this accrued interest is known as the "dirty price"; the "clean price" is the price excluding any interest that has accrued. The value returned by the above formula is thus the dirty price.
Clean prices are generally more stable over time than dirty prices. This is because clean prices change for economic reasons ( for instance a change in interest rates or in the bond issuer's credit quality), whereas dirty prices change day to day depending on where the current date is in relation to the coupon dates, in addition to any economic reasons.
It is market practice to quote bonds on a clean-price basis. When a bond settles the accrued interest is added to the value based on the clean price to reflect the full market value.

Under this approach, the bond price will reflect its arbitrage-free price. Here, each cash flow (coupon or face) is separately discounted at the same rate as a zero-coupon bond corresponding to the coupon date, and of equivalent credit worthiness (if possible, from the same issuer as the bond being valued, or if not, with the appropriate credit spread). Here, in general, we apply the rational pricing logic relating to "Assets with identical cash flows". In detail: (1) the bond's coupon dates and coupon amounts are known with certainty. Therefore (2) some multiple (or fraction) of zero-coupon bonds, each corresponding to the bond's coupon dates, can be specified so as to produce identical cash flows to the bond. Thus (3) the bond price today must be equal to the sum of each of its cash flows discounted at the discount rate implied by the value of the corresponding ZCB. Were this not the case, (4) the abitrageur could finance his purchase of whichever of the bond or the sum of the various ZCBs was cheaper, by short selling the other, and meeting his cash flow commitments using the coupons or maturing zeroes as appropriate. Then (5) his "risk free", arbitrage profit would be the difference between the two values. See Rational pricing: Fixed income securities.

Value investing
Value investing is an investment paradigm that derives from the ideas on investment and speculation that Ben Graham & David Dodd began teaching at Columbia Business School in 1928 and subsequently developed in their 1934 text Security Analysis. Although value investing has taken many forms since its inception, it generally involves buying securities whose shares appear underpriced by some form(s) of fundamental analysis. As examples, such securities may be stock in public companies that trade at discounts to book value or tangible book value, have high dividend yields, have low price-to-earning multiples or have low price-to-book ratios.
High-profile proponents of value investing, including Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett, have argued that the essence of value investing is buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value. The discount of the market price to the intrinsic value is what Benjamin Graham called the "margin of safety". The intrinsic value is the discounted value of all future distributions.

However, the future distributions and the appropriate discount rate can only be assumptions. For the last 25 years, Warren Buffett has taken the value investing concept even further with a focus on "finding an outstanding company at a sensible price" rather than generic companies at a bargain price.

Value investing was established by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, both professors at Columbia Business School and teachers of many famous investors. In Graham's book The Intelligent Investor, he advocated the important concept of margin of safety — first introduced in Security Analysis, a 1934 book he co-authored with David Dodd — which calls for a cautious approach to investing. In terms of picking stocks, he recommended defensive investment in stocks trading below their tangible book value as a safeguard to adverse future developments often encountered in the stock market.
However, the concept of value (as well as "book value") has evolved significantly since the 1970s. Book value is most useful in industries where most assets are tangible. Intangible assets such as patents, software, brands, or goodwill are difficult to quantify, and may not survive the break-up of a company. When an industry is going through fast technological advancements, the value of its assets is not easily estimated. Sometimes, the production power of an asset can be significantly reduced due to competitive disruptive innovation and therefore its value can suffer permanent impairment. One good example of decreasing asset value is a personal computer. An example of where book value does not mean much is the service and retail sectors. One modern model of calculating value is the discounted cash flow model (DCF). The value of an asset is the sum of its future cash flows, discounted back to the present.
Value investing has proven to be a successful investment strategy. There are several ways to evaluate its success. One way is to examine the performance of simple value strategies, such as buying low PE ratio stocks, low price-to-cash-flow ratio stocks, or low price-to-book ratio stocks. Numerous academics have published studies investigating the effects of buying value stocks. These studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole.

Another way to examine the performance of value investing strategies is to examine the investing performance of well-known value investors. Simply examining the performance of the best known value investors would not be instructive, because investors do not become well known unless they are successful. This introduces a selection bias. A better way to investigate the performance of a group of value investors was suggested by Warren Buffett, in his May 17, 1984 speech that was published as The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville. In this speech, Buffett examined the performance of those investors who worked at Graham-Newman Corporation and were thus most influenced by Benjamin Graham. Buffett's conclusion is identical to that of the academic research on simple value investing strategies--value investing is, on average, successful in the long run.
During about a 25-year period (1965-90), published research and articles in leading journals of the value ilk were few. Warren Buffett once commented, "You couldn't advance in a finance department in this country unless you taught that the world was flat.

Benjamin Graham is regarded by many to be the father of value investing. Along with David Dodd, he wrote Security Analysis, first published in 1934. The most lasting contribution of this book to the field of security analysis was to emphasize the quantifiable aspects of security analysis (such as the evaluations of earnings and book value) while minimizing the importance of more qualitative factors such as the quality of a company's management. Graham later wrote The Intelligent Investor, a book that brought value investing to individual investors. Aside from Buffett, many of Graham's other students, such as William J. Ruane, Irving Kahn and Charles Brandes have gone on to become successful investors in their own right.
Graham's most famous student, however, is Warren Buffett, who ran successful investing partnerships before closing them in 1969 to focus on running Berkshire Hathaway. Charlie Munger joined Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway in the 1970s and has since worked as Vice Chairman of the company. Buffett has credited Munger with encouraging him to focus on long-term sustainable growth rather than on simply the valuation of current cash flows or assets. Columbia Business School has played a significant role in shaping the principles of the Value Investor, with professors and students making their mark on history and on each other. Ben Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor, was Warren Buffett’s bible and he referred to it as "the greatest book on investing ever written.” A young Warren Buffett studied under Prof. Ben Graham, took his course and worked for his small investment firm, Graham Newman, from 1954 to 1956. Twenty years after Ben Graham, Prof. Roger Murray arrived and taught value investing to a young student named Mario Gabelli. About a decade or so later, Prof. Bruce Greenwald arrived and produced his own protégés, including Mr. Paul Sonkin—just as Ben Graham had Mr. Buffett as a protégé, and Roger Murray had Mr. Gabelli.

Mutual Series has a well known reputation of producing top value managers and analysts in this modern era. This tradition stems from two individuals: the late great value mind Max Heine, founder of the well regarded value investment firm Mutual Shares fund in 1949 and his protégé legendary value investor Michael F. Price. Mutual Series was sold to Franklin Templeton in 1996. The disciples of Heine and Price quietly practice value investing at some of the most successful investment firms in the country.

Seth Klarman is a Mutual Series alum and the founder and president of The Baupost Group, a Boston-based private investment partnership, authored Margin of Safety, Risk Averse Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor, which since has become a value investing classic. Now out of print, Margin of Safety has sold on Amazon for $1,200 and eBay for $2,000. Another famous value investor is John Templeton. He first achieved investing success by buying shares of a number of companies in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929.

Martin J. Whitman is another well-regarded value investor. His approach is called safe-and-cheap, which was hitherto referred to as financial-integrity approach. Martin Whitman focuses on acquiring common shares of companies with extremely strong financial position at a price reflecting meaningful discount to the estimated NAV of the company concerned. Martin Whitman believes it is ill-advised for investors to pay much attention to the trend of macro-factors (like employment, movement of interest rate, GDP, etc.) because they are not as important and attempts to predict their movement are almost always futile. Martin Whitman's letters to shareholders of his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVF) are considered valuable resources "for investors to pirate good ideas" by another famous investor Joel Greenblatt in his book on special-situation investment You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (ISBN 0-684-84007-3, pp 247).

Joel Greenblatt achieved annual returns at the hedge fund Gotham Capital of over 50% per year for 10 years from 1985 to 1995 before closing the fund and returning his investors' money. He is known for investing in special situations such as spin-offs, mergers, and divestitures.
Charles de Vaulx and Jean-Marie Eveillard are well known global value managers. For a time, these two were paired up at the First Eagle Funds, compiling an enviable track record of risk-adjusted outperformance. For example, Morningstar designated them the 2001 "International Stock Manager of the Year" and de Vaulx earned second place from Morningstar for 2006. Eveillard is known for his Bloomberg appearances where he insists that securities investors never use margin or leverage. The point made is that margin should be considered the anathema of value investing, since a negative price move could prematurely force a sale. In contrast, a value investor must be able and willing to be patient for the rest of the market to recognize and correct whatever pricing issue created the momentary value. Eveillard correctly labels the use of margin or leverage as speculation, the opposite of value investing.

Christopher H. Browne of Tweedy, Browne was well known for value investing. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tweedy, Browne was the favorite brokerage firm of Benjamin Graham during his lifetime; also, the Tweedy, Browne Value Fund and Global Value Fund have both beat market averages since their inception in 1993. In 2006, Christopher H. Browne wrote The Little Book of Value Investing in order to teach ordinary investors how to value invest.